Climate Change, Automation, Geopolitical Fragmentation, Digital Economy, COVID-19 Pandemic

Projektziel

"Israel's World of Work 2040" explores potential futures for Israel's labor market through innovative scenario planning. This project examines how technological advancements, global trends, and local dynamics may reshape work, labor relations, and socioeconomic structures. By engaging stakeholders from Israel and Germany, we aim to provide insights into the future to inform decision-making today.

Projektbeschreibung

Kontext

Israel's labor market faces rapid technological changes, particularly in AI and automation, amid global trends like the gig economy and climate change. Domestically, challenges include integrating ultra-Orthodox and Arab populations and addressing socioeconomic gaps, while the high-tech sector drives growth but raises questions about inclusivity.

Our project explores four scenarios based on the axes of Integration vs. Fragmentation and Domination vs. Empowerment:

• Independent Innovators: Decentralized, empowered communities

• Global Guardians: Integrated, ethical global companies

• Corporate Cyborgs: Centralized, domineering corporations

• Controlled Craftsmen: Fragmented, hyper-competitive firms

These scenarios, subject to change in the upcoming workshop, aim to prepare stakeholders for various futures and shape desirable outcomes. This project updates our 2016 study, incorporating recent events and German perspectives for cross-cultural insights.

Fragestellung

• How will technological advancements, particularly AI and automation, reshape Israel's labor market by 2040? What new job roles might emerge, and which existing ones may become obsolete?

• What potential scenarios emerge for labor relations and work structures in Israel by 2040? How might the balance of power between workers, employers, and the state shift?

• How will the roles and strategies of labor unions, employer organizations, and government institutions evolve in response to changing work paradigms?

• What are the implications of these future scenarios for social equality, job security, and work-life balance in Israel? How might they affect the integration of ultra-Orthodox and Arab populations into the workforce?

• How can policymakers, unions, and businesses prepare for and shape these potential futures? What policy interventions or institutional changes might be necessary?

Untersuchungsmethoden

1. Expert Survey: Online questionnaire targeting diverse stakeholders in Israel's labor market to identify emerging trends.

In-depth Interviews: Phone interviews with key experts post-October 7th, providing insights on geopolitical impacts on labor trends.

2. Trend Analysis: Advanced textual and sentiment analysis of survey and interview data to identify key drivers and uncertainties.

3. Scenario Framework: Construction of two primary axes based on conflicting narratives, forming the basis for four distinct 2040 labor market scenarios.

4. Collaborative Refinement: Intensive stakeholder workshop bringing together experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to refine and validate scenarios.

5. Dissemination: High-profile conference presentation to engage decision-makers, complemented by comprehensive reports and policy briefs for maximum impact.